June 29, 2015

FT: PwC forecasts Africa’s mutual fund industry surpassing $1 trillion by 2020

The Financial TimesAfrica’s mutual fund industry should see assets surpass the $1tn milestone by the end of 2020 as rising prosperity boosts demand for pensions and life insurance products, according to PwC, the auditor. But the development of an asset management sector fit for Africa’s needs in the twenty-first century remains a daunting challenge. It warns that poor infrastructure and liquidity in many stock markets could hamper the development of mutual funds across the continent. Click through the following link to read the full article: PwC forecasts Africa’s mutual fund industry surpassing $1 trillion by 2020



Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

May 28, 2015

Nile Funds: Nile Pan Africa Fund Five Year Anniversary

Nile Capital Management is pleased to announce the five year anniversary of its Nile Pan Africa Fund (NAFAX), an actively managed mutual fund that focuses exclusively on the continent of Africa.

Since Nile Pan Africa Fund’s inception on April 28, 2010, the Fund has returned 8.31% annualized. For the same period, the Dow Jones Africa Titans 50 index returned 0.76%, the MSCI Emerging Markets index returned 3.32% and the MSCI Frontier Markets index returned 5.87%. For the past 12 month period, the Nile Pan Africa Fund returned -5.40%, compared to -11.61% for the Dow Jones Africa Titans 50 index, 7.80% for the MSCI Emerging Markets index and -5.40% for the MSCI Frontier Markets index.

Nile Pan Africa Fund has had lower risk, as measured by standard deviation of returns, while delivering higher returns than the MSCI Emerging Markets index since inception. The Fund has managed its return since inception while keeping annualized standard deviation of returns to 15.72%, achieving a Sharpe Ratio of 0.53. In comparison, the MSCI Emerging Markets index had annualized standard deviation of returns of 18.38% and a Sharpe Ratio of 0.16.


Image
Source: Morningstar

The performance of Nile Pan Africa Fund was given Lipper’s highest ranking, 5 (top quintile), for Total Return for the 3 year period out of 532 funds, 5 year out of 335 funds, and overall out of 532 funds in the Emerging Markets Funds category for the period ending April 30, 2015.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just published its Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa in April 2015 and has forecasted 4.5% Real GDP growth for Sub-Saharan Africa for 2015, and 5.1% for 2016, compared to 4.3% for 2015 and 4.7% for 2016 for Emerging Markets, and just 2.4% for 2015 and 2.4% for 2016 for advanced economies. Our view continues to be that growth in Africa is robust relative to developed and other emerging and frontier markets, thus, we still see potential for higher equity prices in Africa for the intermediate to longer term.

From an allocation perspective, we believe Nile Pan Africa Fund offers access to a region with robust long term growth potential, and the strategy has a five year track record of delivering superior risk-managed returns. For those that have yet to make an allocation to this region, we believe the timing is now right for this opportunity.

Larry Seruma
Portfolio Manager
Nile Pan Africa Fund

For updated Nile Pan Africa Fund performance, visit http://nilefunds.com/our-funds/


Nile Pan Africa Fund Performance

Inception Date is April 28, 2010 for Nile Pan Africa Fund
As of April 30, 2015As of March 31, 2015
Fund Name1 Month1 Year5 YearSince Inception1 YearSince Inception
Nile Pan Africa Fund (NAFAX) Without Load4.38%-5.40%-8.32%8.31%-6.76%7.52%
Nile Pan Africa Fund (NAFAX) With Load-1.64%-10.82%7.05%7.04%-12.13%6.23%
Dow Jones Africa Titans 50 Index9.90%-11.61%0.41%0.76%-15.57%-1.14%
MSCI Emerging Markets Index7.69%7.80%3.02%3.32%0.44%1.84%
MSCI Frontier Markets Index3.75%-5.40%5.85%5.87%-3.62%5.18%
Returns for Nile Pan Africa Fund are for the A Share Class (NAFAX) only, other share classes will vary.

The performance data quoted here represents past performance. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted above. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate, so that shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. As stated in the current prospectus, Nile Pan Africa Fund's total annual operating expense ratio (gross) is 2.50% for Class A shares. The Fund’s investment adviser has contractually agreed to reduce its fees and/or absorb expenses of the funds, at least until July 31, 2015, to ensure that the Total Annual Fund Operating Expenses After Fee Waiver (exclusive of any acquired fund fees and expenses, borrowing costs, taxes and extraordinary expenses) will not exceed 2.50% for Nile Pan Africa Fund Class A, subject to possible recoupment from the Funds in future years. Please review the Funds’ prospectus for more detail on the expense waiver. Results shown reflect the waiver, without which the results could have been lower. A Fund's performance, especially for very short periods of time, should not be the sole factor in making your investment decisions. For performance information current to the most recent month-end, please call toll-free 1-877-682-3742.

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Nile Funds. This and other important information about the Funds is contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-877-682-3742. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Nile Funds are distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. Nile Capital Management, LLC is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Mutual Funds involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Frontier market countries generally have smaller economies and even less developed capital markets than traditional developing markets, and, as a result, the risks of investing in developing market countries are magnified in frontier market countries.

Adverse changes in currency exchange rates may erode or reverse any potential gains from the Fund's investments. ETF's are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the fund. These risks could include liquidity risk, sector risk, as well as risks associated with fixed income securities, real estate investments, and commodities, to name a few. Non-diversification risk, as the Funds are more vulnerable to events affecting a single issuer. Investments in underlying funds that own small and mid-capitalization companies may be more vulnerable than larger, more established organizations. The Fund's exposure to companies primarily engaged in the natural resource markets may subject the Fund to greater volatility than investments in a wider variety of industries.

There is a risk that issuers and counterparties will not make payments on securities and other investments held by the Fund, resulting in losses to the Fund. In general, the price of a fixed income security falls when interest rates rise. The Fund may invest, directly or indirectly, in "junk bonds." Such securities are speculative investments that carry greater risks than higher quality debt securities.

Lipper ratings for Total Return reflect funds’ historical total return performance relative to peers as of 4/30/15. Overall Ratings are based on an equal-weighted average of percentile ranks for each measure over 3-, 5-, and 10-year periods (if applicable).The Lipper ratings are subject to change every month and are based on an equal-weighted average of percentile ranks for Total Return, Consistent Return and Preservation metrics over 3-, 5-, and 10-year periods (if applicable). The highest 20% of funds in each peer group are named Lipper Leader or a score of 5, the next 20% receive a score of 4, the middle 20% are scored 3, the next 20% are scored 2, and the lowest 20% are scored 1. Lipper ratings are not intended to predict future results, and Lipper does not guarantee the accuracy of this information. More information is available at lipperweb.com. Lipper Leader © 2015, Reuters, All Rights Reserved.

Lipper Fund Awards are based on Lipper’s Consistent Return calculation. Lipper scores for Consistent Return reflect funds’ historical risk-adjusted returns relative to funds in the same Lipper classification and include each fund’s expenses and reinvested distributions, but exclude sales charges. Consistent Return values are calculated with all eligible share classes for each eligible classification. The highest Lipper Leader for each Consistent Return value within each eligible classification determines the fund classification winner over three, five or 10 years.

Lipper Award winners are recognized for being the top-risk adjusted performing funds in their respective Lipper peer groups for the listed periods ending December 31, 2013. Past performance or ranking is not indicative of future results. Lipper ratings are not intended to predict future results, and Lipper does not guarantee the accuracy of this information. More information is available at www.lipperweb.com. Lipper Leader Copyright 2014.

Standard Deviation measures the degree of variation of returns around the mean (average) return. The higher the volatility of the investment returns, the higher the standard deviation will be. Sharpe Ratio measures the risk-adjusted return by dividing average return by the standard deviation of return.
Dow Jones Africa Titans 50 Index: Measures the stock performance of 50 leading companies that are headquartered or generate the majority of their revenues in Africa. Stocks are selected to the index by float-adjusted market capitalization, subject to screens for size and liquidity.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index: A market-capitalization weighted index of emerging market country indices.
MSCI Frontier Markets Index: A market-capitalization weighted index of frontier market country indices.
Investors cannot directly invest in an index and unmanaged index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges.
2260-NLD-5/19/2015


Nile Capital Management LLC
116 Village Blvd, Ste 306 | Princeton, NJ 8540 |
info@nilecapital.com | office (646) 367-2820



Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

May 27, 2015

Bloomberg: Tanzania Shilling Drops to Record; Kenya Currency Falls 6th Week

Bloomberg Tanzania’s shilling dropped to a record low to lead declines among currencies in East Africa’s biggest economies this week as investors sought dollars amid a rally in the foreign currency.  Click through the following link to read the full article: Tanzania Shilling Drops to Record; Kenya Currency Falls 6th Week.


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

April 22, 2015

Larry Seruma joining the 2015 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL FORUM NEW YORK


Larry Seruma was invited to participate among the delegates and faculty in the 2015 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL FORUM NEW YORK featuring THE 7TH ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL M&A AWARDS.

The International Financial Forum is a private invitation-only summit that will take place on April 27-28 in New York, NY, and will be comprised of two feature events: the Cross Border M&A Symposium and the 7th Annual International M&A Awards.

Two significant trends are currently affecting international investment strategies and the advancement of cross border M&A. Click through the following link to view the Event Profile for the 2015 International Financial Forum Featuring the 7th Annual InternationalM&A Awards.



Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820 

April 17, 2015

Mark Mobius - A New Way Forward for Nigeria?


Mark Mobius - A couple of years ago, many investors were optimistic about Nigeria and the stock market was booming, buoyed by strong economic growth and government reforms to improve the country. However, by 2014, the mood soured amid a series of unfortunate events, including the terrorist acts of Boko Haram, an Ebola outbreak and the weakening price of oil, which is the major source of income for the government and has a big impact on the economy. Despite these challenges, we continue to pursue long-term investments in Nigeria for a number of reasons. Not only is Nigeria Africa’s largest economy and a major consumer market, but the outcome of Nigeria’s presidential election in March proved its people are ready for change—hopefully for the better. Click through the following link to read the full article: Mark Mobius - A New Way Forward for Nigeria?


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

April 9, 2015

Bloomberg - Nile Capital’s Larry Seruma on Best Consumer Plays in Africa (Audio)

The Bloomberg Advantage Podcast
Hosted by Kathleen Hays and Vonnie Quinn

The Bloomberg Advantage with Kathleen Hays and Vonnie Quinn interviewed Larry SerumaChief Investment Officer at Nile Capital Management, regarding the economic outlook on Africa. Click through the following link to hear the audio Nile Capital’s Larry Seruma on Best Consumer Plays in Africa (Audio)


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

April 7, 2015

CNN - Nigerians give Buhari mandate to fight corruption


CNN International interviewed Larry Seruma regarding the latest news and headlines about Nigeria's Elections. This is probably Nigeria's most tense and important election since the country returned to democracy in 1999.

During the interview Larry discussed the results of Nigeria's presidential election, the winner Muhammadu Buhari and its impact from an economic and a global perspective. The question is now what? Can he govern? Can the opposition manage the economy or government? They have no experience of governing - can they pull it off?


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820 

March 13, 2015

WSJ: China’s CIC Wealth Fund Shifts Focus to Emerging Markets — Optimistic About Africa

China Investment Corp., a $653 billion sovereign-wealth fund, plans to invest more in emerging markets where there is less competition and a greater need for capital. PHOTO: EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY

The Wall Street Journal BERLIN — China’s $653 billion sovereign-wealth fund is looking to invest more in emerging markets, according to an infrastructure investing official at China Investment Corp.

CIC, which has made several high profile investments in the U.S. and Europe in recent years, is targeting emerging countries where there is less competition, more opportunity to tap growth and a greater need for capital, the executive said. Click through the following link to read the full article: China’s CIC Shifts Wealth Fund Focus to Emerging Markets


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

March 6, 2015

Bloomberg: Into Africa - China Plays U.S. in Great Power Game

Source: Brookings Africa Growth Initiative from International Monetary Fund data

Bloomberg - Africa has long been a battleground for world powers. Two giants playing there these days are China, which is spending freely throughout the continent to scoop up resources and tap some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, and the U.S., which is looking to do more business. Both Chinese and U.S. companies expect to profit from their African stakes. The question is whether Africans can win, too. Click through the following link to read the full article: Into Africa - ChinaPlays U.S. in Great Power Game


Sources: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (investments); UN (populations); World Bank (electricity)


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

March 5, 2015

The Financial Times: GE and Philips scan Africa medical market

The Financial Times - Judging by the long and determined-looking queue waiting to meet Samuel Were in London last week, executives from medical equipment companies fully grasp the near-$35bn value that the International Finance Corporation puts on Africa’s healthcare market. Click through the following link to read the full article: 

No electricity, no problem: Philips’s wind-up foetal heart rate monitor

Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

February 26, 2015

The Economist: Why Africa is becoming less dependent on commodities

Getty Images
The Economist: FOR DECADES commodities have shaped Africa’s economic growth. When prices were high, growth was good; when prices dipped, so did the continent. But that is slowly changing. Despite big commodity-price falls this year—oil is down by 50%—the continent will probably grow by 5% in 2015 (and more in the following years). While lots of African currencies lost value in 2014, they have performed much better than during other periods when commodity prices were falling. Few African countries will fall into recession in 2015—unlike other commodity exporters such as Russia and Venezuela. Why is Africa doing better than many expected? Two reasons stand out. Click through the following link to read the full article: http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/01/economist-explains-5


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

February 13, 2015

Bloomberg: Microsoft Plans Windows Phone Sale to Boost Growth in Africa




In an effort to boost its smartphone market share, Microsoft plans to introduce Windows Phones that cost $75 to $100 in Africa this year, according to a Microsoft executive.

Fernando de Sousa, Microsoft's general manager for Africa Initiatives, told Bloomberg that "It will be a global launch. Africa will lead in the consumption. Africa is growing smartphone use faster than anywhere in the world." 

Microsoft has launched its 4Afrika Initiative to sell cheap phones in Africa while investing in education and local technology companies. Click through the following link to read the full article: Microsoft Plans Windows Phone Sale to Boost Growth in Africa.

Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

February 2, 2015

CNN: Violence slams Nigerian economy

Violence slams Nigerian economy - CNN Video
Larry Seruma, Managing Principal at Nile Capital Management, spoke to CNN about the upcoming elections in Nigeria and Boko Haram. The interview covered topics such as the strengthening electoral process in Nigeria, the close presidential race and the international response to Boko Haram. In terms of the latter, recent strides have been taken to combat the Islamist insurgency. Chadian forces recently captured a Nigerian border town from Boko Haram as African leaders work to strengthen a Multinational Joint Task Force aimed against the militants. Forces from Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, Benin and Chad will comprise the bulk of a 7,500 man force. The mission is awaiting approval from the United Nations. Although violence has escalated in recent months, the situation appears to be improving. To read more on the matter click through the following article: Bloomberg - Africa Seeks Boko Haram Fighting Force.

Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820 

Two-minute Guide to the Upcoming Nigerian Elections

The Nigerian general election of 2015 will be the fifth election to be held since the end of military rule in 1999. Presidential and National Assembly (House of Representatives and Senate) elections are both scheduled  for February 14, 2015. Governor and State House of Assembly elections are set for February 28, 2015. The incumbent president, Jonathan Goodluck will be seeking a second and final term. 

Political Parties

The two party frontrunners and their candidates are highlighted in the chart below. APC is a newly formed party, comprised of an alliance of four parties, and accordingly holds 139 seats in the National Assembly, versus the PDP’s 205 seats. The APC candidate, Retired General Muhammadu Bahari, ruled Nigeria from 1983 to 1985. Bahari also unsuccessfully ran for President in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Goodluck Jonathan, member of the opposing PDP, is the reigning Nigerian president.

Party
National Assembly Seats
Presidential Candidate
People’s Democratic Party (PDP)
205 (55%)
Goodluck Jonathan
All Progressives Congress (APC)
139 (23%)
Retired General Muhammadu Bahari

Polls

The race for the presidency has recently heated up. According to a December 2014 poll, Jonathan enjoyed a 19% lead over the opposing Buhari. However, recent polls by Afrobarometer, the leading continent-wide researcher of African public opinion, asserts that the election is “too close to call,” with both parties receiving 42% of respondents’ support. To win, a Presidential candidate needs an overall majority and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 24 states. In the case of the latter requirement, a runoff may be needed even if a candidate has secured an overall majority.

Investor Sentiment

Jonathan's government is expected to continue an expansionary fiscal policy ahead of elections in an attempt to bolster his standing. Many suspect that once the election is out of the way, monetary policy will need to tighten even further in order to reduce inflationary pressures and prevent the naira from falling. Earlier this month, the Central Bank of Nigeria held the key interest rate at 13%, already a record high.

Even though political violence should be contained, the expected increase in violence as elections draw near will also pose headline risks for investors. All the foregoing combined will make investing in Nigeria a volatile experience before the elections are settled.

Election Timeline:

12 February: Last Day for Presidential and National Assembly campaigning. Advertising within 24 hours of election prohibited.

14 February: National Assembly and Presidential elections.

28 February: Governorship and State House of Assembly elections.

Note: Runoff elections to the office of the President of Governor of State (if any) will be held within 7 days after the announcement of the result of the election.


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

January 28, 2015

BloombergBusiness: Africa Nations Must Cut Fuel Subsidies on Oil Drop, IMF Says


(Bloomberg) -- African nations should cut fuel subsidies and oil exporters curb spending as a slump in crude prices takes it toll on government revenue, says IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde. According to Lagarde, subsidizing countries "should think about reducing and phasing out the oil subsidies, taking advantage of the oil price and using public finance more wisely" while oil-exporting countries are advised to remain very cautious with public spending. The 60% drop in oil prices has already forced policy makers in Nigeria to devalue the currency, raise interest rates to a record and consider shaving the 2015 budget by 8 percent.  Lagarde claims that Nigeria should re-examine its fiscal and monetary policies immediately after elections to see if further action is needed.

Click through the following link to read the full article: 
Africa Nations Must Cut Fuel Subsidies on Oil Drop, Lagarde Says

Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820


January 22, 2015

The New York Times: "Africa’s Economy Is Rising. Now What Happens to Its Food?"

Expressed in terms of purchasing-power parity. Source: Analysis of World Bank data

The New York Times: For decades, the economies of Africa were the world’s economic laggards. They aren’t anymore. Over the last decade, Africa’s per capita income has grown at a rate nearly identical to that of the rest of the world. It’s reasonable to imagine that the continent is in the early stages of a trajectory that could mimic that of Latin America or, more ambitiously, parts of Asia. Click through the following link to read the full article: Africa’s Economy Is Rising. Now What Happens to Its Food?


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

December 15, 2014

Chart of the Day: Russia = Africa + more risk

Copyright© 2014 Bloomberg Finance L.P.


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

December 11, 2014

Investopedia: "ETFs And Mutual Funds Investing In Africa"

Investopedia: “Invest in mutual funds,” the standard grandfatherly advice goes. Reduced risk, no overexposure, etc. It’s the responsible, conservative way to build a substantial — if unimpressive — nest egg. And judging by the size of the mutual fund market ($24 trillion worldwide), plenty of people indeed heed that counsel. Click through the following link to read the full article: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/112614/etfs-and-mutual-funds-investing-africa.asp


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

December 5, 2014

MarketWatch - Mark Mobius: Why Africa is the next emerging-markets success story

Bloomberg - Mark Mobius
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Emerging markets super-bull Mark Mobius has his sights set on a new region: Africa. Mobius has spent more than 40 years focusing on emerging markets. In the late 1980s, he joined Franklin Templeton and set up the company’s first emerging-markets funds, in the same year that the MSCI developed its first emerging-markets indexes. He said in an email interview with MarketWatch: “With this tremendous potential growth becoming increasingly available to investors, we believe that Africa could be the emerging-market story of the next decade”. Click through the following link to read the full article: Mark Mobius: Why Africa is the next emerging-markets success story


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

MarketWatch: You aren’t investing in Africa — and you’re missing out

Bloomberg - Cosmo City, a suburb of Johannesburg, South Africa and a stronghold of the continent’s growing middle class.

















LONDON (MarketWatch) — If a financial adviser offered her clients a chance to invest in a country that expected economic growth of 6% or 7% a year for the next two decades, chances are the clients would jump at the prospect. But once they found out that country was in sub-Saharan Africa, chances are a lot of them would lose their nerve. David Snowball, publisher of the Mutual Fund Observer newsletter, says the two best Africa-focused funds are winning  “by consistently hitting singles and working hard not to strike out, rather than for seeking the highest possible gains.” Click through the following link to read the full article: You aren’t investing in Africa — and you’re missing out


















Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820

December 2, 2014

CNBC: Investment opportunities in Africa





CNBC: Larry Seruma, Managing Principal at Nile Capital Management, is optimistic that the worst case scenarios for Ebola is over.

Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820 

October 17, 2014

CNN: Ebola spreading concerns investors



Larry Seruma spoke yesterday with Anchor Maggie Lake, World Business Today Show, from CNN International regarding Ebola Epidemic and the impact on Africa Investments. The interview covered important topics in our economy today such as the short term impact on the affected countries, what does this mean for growth prospects, investment flows and FDI, and the perspective from a global standpoint.


Nile Capital Management
We Know Africa: From Cairo to Cape Town
For more information please call 646-367-2820